Strategy Performance Review: October 2025 - January 2026 (Quant Trading)

Real performance data from five+ systematic strategies across Trump's re-election, year-end positioning, and January's tariff volatility.

Dear Quantitative Traders,

In October 2025, I updated all RealTest strategy performance data on SetupAlpha. This report covers their behavior from October 1, 2025 through January 21, 2026 a period encompassing Trump’s re-election, year-end market dynamics, and January’s tariff-driven volatility.

I update these figures manually every few months so you can see how the strategies are performing. Some strategies captured the environment perfectly. Others sat in cash waiting for setups that didn't materialize. This is what real systematic trading looks like.

Market Environment

The review period featured distinct phases. November brought post-election momentum. December exhibited year-end positioning dynamics. January introduced heightened volatility driven by tariff policy announcements and sector rotation.

SPY advanced modestly during this period, but the underlying character of price action changed significantly across these three months.

Nasdaq 100 Mean Reversion → (2025: +48.5%)

This strategy has been my main income driven strategy in my portfolio lately.

This strategy result includes IBKR commissions + open and close order slippage.

SPY buy and hold doesn’t include any fees.

• Oct: + 5.3%

• Nov + 2.9%

• Dec + 3.1%

It captures short-duration reversions in Nasdaq 100 constituents. The core mechanism: technology stocks frequently exhibit 2-3% intraday declines followed by institutional buying resumption. The system identifies these technical setups and capitalizes on multi-day bounces. This system is using only MO orders not limit orders.

Mean Reversion 2025 → (2025: +14.1%)

This strategy result includes IBKR commissions + limit extra buffer.

SPY buy and hold doesn’t include any fees.

• Oct: + 2.8%

• Nov -1.0%

• Dec + 3.8%

This strategy applies mean reversion principles across broader S&P 500 constituents rather than concentration in technology. The approach differs from Nasdaq Mean Reversion in two dimensions: wider universe selection and modified entry thresholds calibrated for S&P volatility dynamics + using only limit orders.

Weekly Dip Buying → (2025: +17.5%)

This strategy result includes IBKR commissions + limit extra buffer.

SPY buy and hold doesn’t include any fees.

• Oct: + 0.8%

• Nov 9.2%

• Dec + 0.8%

Why weekly timeframe analysis matters: it removes intraday noise while capturing multi-day price action. Stocks in strong trends regularly pull back 3-7% on weekly basis before continuing. This behavioral pattern persisted even as January introduced heightened uncertainty.

ETF Rotation → (2025: +20.8%)

This strategy result includes $10 commissions per order ($20 per round) + entry and exit slippage.

SPY buy and hold doesn’t include any fees.

• Oct: + 5.8%

• Nov +2.2%

• Dec +0.4%

This momentum-based rotation system allocates capital monthly across sector and thematic ETFs. Rather than holding broad market exposure, the strategy continuously reallocates toward sectors demonstrating strongest momentum metrics.

Current allocations demonstrate why sector rotation added value during the review period:

Gold (GLD) - The strategy identified gold’s momentum breakout in July 2025 and maintained allocation throughout October-January as the sector continued advancing. This positioning captured returns while domestic equities chopped.

Biotech (XBI) - Entry occurred in October 2025 as healthcare sector momentum emerged. The allocation persisted through January as biotech demonstrated relative strength against broader technology weakness.

International (VEU) - The system rotated into international exposure mid-2025, recognizing divergence between U.S. and ex-U.S. equity momentum. This positioning provided diversification as domestic policy uncertainty elevated in January.

While the S&P 500 index showed modest gains, underlying sector performance varied dramatically. Gold, biotech, and international equities significantly outperformed during periods when technology and financial stocks consolidated. The rotation system identified and captured these divergences.

For complete updated performance data across all strategies: SetupAlpha Strategy Collection

The “Real” Alpha: Live Market Lessons

Performance charts show you what happened. But if you want to know how to survive the next quarter, you need the implementation details.

Subscribe now to unlock the 3 Critical Lessons I learned from trading this specific quarter.